June 10, 2021

Statistics

Initial Target

Start

End

Storm Intercepts

Tornadoes

Hail

Wind

Features

Miles

Scottsbluff, NE

Springfield, IL 6:10 PM 6/8/2021

Oregon, WI 10:39 PM 6/11/2021

None

0 mph

None

1891

Summary

Upslope/dryline play in far western NE. Targeted Scottsbluff for late afternoon supercells. Cap held until dusk and no convection was documented.

Crew and Equipment

Chase partners: Jennifer Brindley Ubl. Equipment: Sony AX100, Samsung S9, Photography courtesy Jennifer Brindley Ubl shooting on a Nikon D4s.

Video

Map

Details

Brindley and I decided to make a long distance, multi-day run out to Nebraska for a single event. We were torn between the triple point on the ND/MT border or a Tail-End-Charlie play way down the dryline on the WY/NE border. A few runs of the models showed explosive potential in Goshen, WY with enormous CAPE. We decided to play the southern target, hoping for a more isolated storm with fewer chasers. However, as the event approach, the cap looked like it could very well shut down the southern target. We doubled down and decided to play the long odds anyway, targeting Scottsbluff. We left on the evening of the eight, spent all day driving on the ninth, and we were sitting just off our target at the start of the tenth.

We had time to kill before storms fired so we decided to check out nearby Chimney Rock. It was immediately off of our route to Scottsbluff.

Chimney Rock
4 miles S of Bayard, NE
1:50 PM

The sun was baking the ground and warming the air up into the 80s, so I was on my own for the hike up to the rock while Brindley stayed cool in the car. I walked the meandering trail for a couple close pictures, wearing my shirt on my head.

The Tiniest Cloud
Ogallala, NE
8:07 PM

We continued on to Scottsbluff afterwards. The situation was not looking good for the chase. Not even tiny “feeder” cumulus were present, and we sat under clear blue skies. By evening it was obvious the cap was not going to break, and we didn’t want to stick around for the nocturnal elevated storms. We called the chase and headed back to Ogallala for Impossible Burgers at the Open Range Grill. We ate on the patio in the back. I took a picture of the tiniest puff of a cloud, the only weather we’d see on the trip. The next day we made the long haul back, and I continued on up to Wisconsin to visit family.

Conclusion

We played the long odds target hoping for an isolated Tail-End Charlie and lost spectacularly. No daytime convection was observed, and meanwhile the North Dakota target produced a few photogenic tornadoes. It was another hard blow on an already tough season. I was pretty much ready to just hang it up for the year at this point. Brindley and I had fun on the trip though, hanging out, visiting Chimney Rock, and tuning out everything happening up north.

Lessons Learned

Don’t play the likely cap bust target on a year on which you haven’t yet scored a decent tube.

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